At a glance
| 30-year rate | 7.03% (24 Sep 2026) |
|---|---|
| Typical home value | $375,470 (-1.5%) |
| Months supply, houses | 4.3 |
| Months supply, condos | 7.7 |
| Balanced market | 5.5 months |
Is now a good time to buy a house in Florida?
It is a better time to negotiate than it has been in years, but not a cheaper time to borrow. Whether that adds up to a good time depends on how long you plan to stay, how much cash you have, and whether you are buying a house or a condo.
What works in a buyer's favor
- Prices are lower than their peak. Zillow's typical Florida value of $375,470 in August 2026 is about 7% below May 2024 and -1.5% on the year.
- Condo buyers have leverage: 7.7 months of supply, and sellers accepting a median 93.3% of their original asking price.
- In the Southwest Gulf coast counties, values are still falling, so there is room to ask for price cuts or seller-paid costs.
- Builders are building fewer homes (single-family permits fell from 123,359 in 2024 to 111,173 in 2025) and many compete with resale homes on price.
What works against buyers
- The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% on 24 September 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier.
- Single-family inventory is 13% lower than a year ago, and supply of 4.3 months is below the 5.5 months that marks a balanced market.
- Homeowners insurance is expensive: Florida had the highest average premium in the country in the latest NAIC data.
The five numbers to watch
1. Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac's weekly survey is the benchmark. At 7.03%, a $300,000 loan costs about $2,002 a month in principal and interest over 30 years. At the 6.30% of a year ago it would have cost about $1,857. Each half-point move changes the payment on a $300,000 loan by roughly $100 a month.
2. Prices
Sold prices are edging up, with the single-family median at $415,000, up 1.2% in August 2026, while Zillow's all-homes index is edging down. The practical reading is that well-located homes in good condition are holding their value, and the discounts are on homes that need work, carry high costs or sit in oversupplied areas.
3. Supply
Active listings were 94,610 single-family homes and 59,697 condos and townhouses in August. Both are lower than a year ago. Falling supply is the main thing that could erase buyer leverage in the house market.
4. Negotiating room
The median seller of a house received 96.0% of the original list price, and the median condo seller 93.3%. Those are medians; homes that have sat for months often go for less, and homes that are new to the market often go for list.
5. The monthly payment, not the price
A year ago, a typical Florida home (about $381,000) with 20% down at 6.30% cost about $1,887 a month in principal and interest. Today the typical home ($375,470) at 7.03% costs about $2,004. The home is cheaper, but the loan is dearer.
Monthly payments by county at today's rate
The table uses Zillow's August 2026 typical home value for each of Florida's larger counties and the 7.03% 30-year rate from Freddie Mac's 24 September 2026 survey. It shows principal and interest only; add property tax, insurance and any association fees.
| County | Typical value | 1-year change | Principal and interest, 20% down | With 10% down |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collier County | $550,723 | -2.4% | $2,940 | $3,308 |
| Miami-Dade County | $521,012 | 0.0% | $2,781 | $3,129 |
| St. Johns County | $488,938 | -1.5% | $2,610 | $2,936 |
| Palm Beach County | $474,416 | +1.2% | $2,533 | $2,849 |
| Broward County | $423,492 | -2.1% | $2,261 | $2,543 |
| Manatee County | $407,828 | -3.4% | $2,177 | $2,449 |
| Seminole County | $400,852 | -0.8% | $2,140 | $2,407 |
| Orange County | $400,602 | -1.2% | $2,139 | $2,406 |
| Sarasota County | $396,714 | -2.9% | $2,118 | $2,383 |
| Hillsborough County | $377,121 | -1.4% | $2,013 | $2,265 |
| St. Lucie County | $371,231 | -1.3% | $1,982 | $2,230 |
| Pinellas County | $370,534 | -0.8% | $1,978 | $2,225 |
| Lake County | $361,482 | -2.3% | $1,930 | $2,171 |
| Osceola County | $359,490 | -3.2% | $1,919 | $2,159 |
| Brevard County | $341,942 | -0.9% | $1,825 | $2,054 |
| Lee County | $335,409 | -4.4% | $1,791 | $2,014 |
| Pasco County | $329,346 | -2.1% | $1,758 | $1,978 |
| Volusia County | $324,688 | -0.9% | $1,733 | $1,950 |
| Alachua County | $304,012 | -1.2% | $1,623 | $1,826 |
| Polk County | $295,824 | -2.4% | $1,579 | $1,777 |
| Leon County | $294,604 | +1.4% | $1,573 | $1,769 |
| Duval County | $294,579 | -0.7% | $1,573 | $1,769 |
| Escambia County | $281,804 | +1.4% | $1,504 | $1,692 |
| Marion County | $269,197 | -2.3% | $1,437 | $1,617 |
With 20% down, payments range from about $1,437 a month on the typical home in Marion County to about $2,940 in Collier County. City-level figures are on our cost of living pages, such as Jacksonville and Lakeland.
What salary do you need for a $400,000 house in Florida?
Here is a worked example. It uses today's rate and a few assumptions you should replace with real quotes.
Step 1: the mortgage
With 20% down ($80,000), you borrow $320,000. At 7.03% over 30 years, principal and interest is about $2,135 a month.
Step 2: property tax
Suppose the home is your homestead and its taxable value after exemptions is about $350,000, in an area with 18 mills. The bill is $350,000 × 18 ÷ 1,000 = $6,300 a year, or about $525 a month. Rates differ by county; see Florida property tax.
Step 3: insurance
Florida's average homeowners premium was $2,677 in 2022, the latest NAIC figure, or about $223 a month. Many buyers now pay more, and flood insurance is extra in higher-risk zones.
Step 4: the income
That adds up to roughly $2,884 a month. If you want housing to take no more than 28% of your gross income, you would need about $123,579 a year. At 33%, it's about $104,855. Lenders also count car loans and other debts, so get pre-approved before you shop. With 10% down, principal and interest rises to about $2,402 and you would usually pay mortgage insurance too.
Buy now or wait until 2027?
If you are waiting for lower rates
Nobody can promise where rates go. If they fall, you may be able to refinance later, although refinancing has its own costs. If they rise, waiting costs you. Buy a payment you can afford at today's rate, not one that only works after a refinance.
If you are waiting for lower prices
Zillow's published forecast, made in August 2026, calls for small moves over the following year: +2.6% in the Miami metro, +0.5% in Tampa, +0.4% in Orlando, +0.8% in Jacksonville, and -1.2% in Cape Coral. The Florida housing market guide has the full table. A forecast of 1% either way is small next to the effect of a rate change.
What waiting costs
While you wait, you pay rent. Zillow's typical rent in August 2026 was $1,957 in Tampa, $1,896 in Orlando, $1,601 in Jacksonville and $3,008 in Miami. A year of rent in Tampa is about $23,500 that doesn't build equity, but it also isn't tied up in closing costs, insurance and repairs.
Your own timeline matters most
Buying and then selling costs money: closing costs on the way in (see Florida closing costs) and commission and doc stamps on the way out. The shorter your stay, the more those costs outweigh any gain. If you expect to move within a few years, renting is often the lower-risk choice.
Is it a good time to buy a condo in Florida?
For buyers who do their homework, conditions are the most favorable in the market. Condo supply was 7.7 months in August 2026 and pending condo sales had risen for 13 straight months, so buyers are returning, but inventory remains high. The risk is in older buildings, where structural inspections and reserve requirements have raised association costs. Ask for the building's milestone inspection report, reserve study and budget, and read our guide to condo milestone inspections first.
Where buyers have the most leverage
Southwest Florida
Charlotte (-4.9%), Lee (-4.4%), Manatee (-3.4%), Sarasota (-2.9%) and Collier (-2.4%) posted some of the biggest one-year drops on Zillow's index. See Cape Coral and Sarasota market data.
Orlando's outer counties
Osceola (-3.2%) and Lake (-2.3%) softened more than Orange and Seminole, and both have a large pipeline of newer homes. Our Clermont new construction page covers one of the busiest areas.
Condo-heavy coastal markets
Anywhere older condo buildings make up a large share of listings, sellers have been cutting prices. Check days on market and price-cut history for the specific building.
Before you make an offer: a readiness checklist
Timing the market matters less than being ready when the right home appears. Work through these five checks first.
Get a full pre-approval
A pre-approval with documents verified, not just a pre-qualification, tells you the payment a lender will actually allow at today's rate and lets you make a clean offer. Ask the lender to quote the same loan with and without paying points, so you can compare the cost of buying the rate down.
Price the insurance on the address
Premiums swing on roof age, construction type, distance to the coast and flood zone. Ask an agent for a quote on the actual property during your inspection period, and ask the seller for any existing wind mitigation or four-point report. Our wind mitigation guide explains the discounts.
Check the flood zone and elevation
Look up the FEMA flood zone before you fall for a home. A mortgage on a home in a high-risk zone usually requires flood insurance, and a home outside those zones can still flood. See Florida flood zones.
Get every association and district cost in writing
Ask for the HOA or condo budget, current dues, any special assessments, and whether the home sits in a community development district. A CDD assessment appears on the property tax bill and can run for decades, so include it in your monthly figure.
Look at first-time buyer help
Down payment assistance can change the math more than a small price cut. Our first-time homebuyer guide covers the Florida programs and who qualifies.
Is it a good time to sell a house in Florida?
For a well-priced single-family home, conditions are reasonable: 4.3 months of supply, a median 44 days to contract, and a median 96.0% of the original price. For condos, expect a longer sale and more negotiation. Price to recent sales, not to the 2022 to 2024 peak. If you are selling one home to buy another in Florida, the two sides of the market largely offset each other: any discount you give on the sale is often matched by the room you have to negotiate on the purchase. Our seller net proceeds calculator estimates what you would take home.
Common questions
Are home prices expected to drop in Florida?+
Zillow's August 2026 forecast expects most Florida metros to move less than 3% in the year to August 2027. It projects small declines in Cape Coral (-1.2%), Ocala (-2.4%), Gainesville (-1.9%) and Lakeland (-0.4%), and small gains in Miami (+2.6%), Naples (+2.2%) and Jacksonville (+0.8%). Forecasts are revised monthly.
Is Florida a buyer's or seller's market right now?+
Houses lean toward sellers and condos toward buyers. In August 2026 Florida had 4.3 months of single-family supply and 7.7 months of condo and townhouse supply. Florida Realtors treats 5.5 months as balanced. Southwest Florida counties, where values are still falling, give buyers more room than the statewide figure suggests.
Should I buy a house in Florida now or wait?+
Buy when the monthly payment works at today's 7.03% rate and you expect to stay long enough to cover buying and selling costs. Waiting for lower prices has limited upside: Zillow forecasts moves of about 1% either way for most metros. Waiting for lower rates is a guess, and rent paid meanwhile builds no equity.
What salary do you need for a $400,000 house in Florida?+
Roughly $124,000 a year if you put 20% down and keep housing costs to 28% of gross income. That assumes a 7.03% rate (about $2,135 a month in principal and interest), a $6,300 annual tax bill and insurance at Florida's 2022 average of $2,677. Your own tax, insurance and debts will change the answer.
Is it cheaper to buy a new build or a resale home in Florida right now?+
It depends on the incentives. Builders often offer rate buydowns or pay closing costs, which can make a new home's monthly payment lower than a resale at the same price. Compare the full cost, including any CDD assessment and HOA dues, which are more common in new communities. See our new construction guide for details.
What month is best to buy a house in Florida?+
There is no single best month. Supply and negotiating room matter more than the calendar, and both are published monthly by Florida Realtors. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, so if you buy then, line up insurance early and allow time for it in the contract.
Sources
- Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 24 September 2026
- Zillow Research: Home Value Index (ZHVI) data, August 2026
- Zillow Research: State ZHVI time series (CSV)
- Zillow Research: Home Value Forecast by metro, base August 2026 (CSV)
- Florida Realtors: Florida housing market levels off in August (16 September 2026)
- Florida Realtors: Monthly Market Summary, August 2026, single-family homes (PDF)
- Florida Realtors: Monthly Market Summary, August 2026, townhouses and condos (PDF)
- Florida Realtors: Market statistics glossary (months supply benchmark)
- Insurance Information Institute: Facts + Statistics, homeowners and renters insurance (NAIC 2022 data)
- U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, annual state data 2025
- U.S. Census Bureau: Building Permits Survey, annual state data 2024
- NOAA AOML Hurricane Research Division: Hurricane FAQ